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N.B. – The first part of this is a wrap-up of the 2017 and 2018 legislative session. This is mostly policy-related, but it is super important to understanding Kentucky elections in 2018.
Overview of the 2017-2018 Legislative Session: Part I
On November 8, 2016, the Kentucky House Republican Party won the State House for the first time since 1921. While many politicos expected the party to do well in the 2016 election, the scale of victory was surprising to both Republicans and Democrats. State House Republicans knocked off Democratic incumbents who had been in office for thirty years, doing extremely well across rural Kentucky.
The State House Republican Caucus unanimously elected Jeff Hoover, from Russell County, to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. Republicans moved many of their long-stalled priorities in the 2017 legislative session, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20th week of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy. By all accounts, it was a stunning success. Some conservative Democrats joined Republicans while more liberal Democrats could do nothing except hope that Andy Beshear would sue the legislature or Matt Bevin to prevent enforcement of various conservative laws.
But then things started to go south. In November, the Courier Journal reported that Speaker Hoover reached a confidential settlement over sexual harassment allegations by a woman who works on his legislative staff. The controversy continued for three months as Hoover hemmed and hawed about whether to resign as Speaker. While that drama was playing out, the media confirmed that campaign donors funded the settlement while lawsuits were filed alleging that a woman suffered retribution for disclosing workplace harassment in Hoover’s office.
The next big shoe to drop was a bombshell report on State Representative Dan Johnson, a Republican of Bullitt County. Among the many interesting parts of Johnson’s past: he molested a 17-year old girl on New Year’s Eve in 2012, committed arson to collect insurance, was possibly involved in another arson case with his church, was cited at least three times by Alcohol Beverage Control officers, and was involved in a number of different lies, including that he had served as a United Nations ambassador and White House chaplain to three presidents. He was also the pastor who had given last rites for people who died at the World Trade Center on September 11th. Johnson quickly killed himself even though he denied the allegations.
When the legislature reconvened in January, the Hoover scandal continued. Despite saying he would resign, Hoover decided to remain de facto Speaker, while he turned over floor management to Speaker Pro Tempore David Osborne. Meanwhile, 8 Republicans decided they would try to expel Hoover from the body. This caused Osborne to form a special investigative committee to investigative Hoover. The committee promptly dissolved in a week. Hoover delivered several angry speeches from the House floor, demanding that the House require the loser pay for any special investigative committee. He finally resigned from the Speakership, but only after wasting several weeks of precious legislative time. (In April, Hoover admitted he violated ethics rules and was fined $1000).
The disarray continued, but this time on the policy side.
The pension system in Kentucky has been ailing for some years, but the Republican controlled Senate and the Democratic controlled House had not been able to work out an acceptable compromise to solve the problem. The problem has become more severe in recent years – the main fund for state employees has only 14% of the money to pay retirees.
With the State House now under Republican control, there was an expectation that pensions would be one of the top issues dealt with in the 2018 legislative session. In October 2017, Matt Bevin introduced a bill that would end guaranteed benefit pension plans and switch workers to 401(k) type plans. Bevin also proposed that current workers pay 3% of their salaries to retiree health and proposed that teachers’ cost of living adjustments be frozen over the next few years.
Bevin’s bill sparked outrage among public employees and teachers. The Kentucky Educational Association organized town halls and protests, which prompted more fiscally liberal State House Republicans to decide they couldn’t back Bevin’s bill. Bevin criticized opponents for lacking the sophistication to understand what was in his bill.
By 2018, it had become clear that a major split had opened up among House Republicans and Bevin’s bill could not pass. At the last minute, Republicans jammed through a new pension bill that moved workers hired after January 1, 2019 to 401(k) style plans. However, current workers
By 2018, it had become clear that Bevin could not pass his bill. Many people thought pension reform would be dead. But at the last minute, Republican leaders jammed through a new bill. Changes to pension plans would now only affect future workers, but the bill changed how current workers could use saved-up sick days. State workers would no longer get a 4% return on retirement savings. Most Republicans in Eastern Kentucky joined a unified Democratic caucus in voting no.
Teachers and state workers were livid. Daily protests at the state capital commenced, while schools closed around the state.
But Republicans weren’t done. Kentucky has not only had a pension problem over the past two decades. The state also has a revenue problem. State House and State Senate Republicans agreed to a tax bill that would have decreased taxes on wealthy and corporations, expanded the sales tax and cigarette tax, and increased spending on public education. Matt Bevin promptly vetoed the bill, which was followed by additional protests. The veto was overturned by the state legislature.
Right after the state legislature overturned the veto, Bevin emerged from the governor’s mansion and announced that because teachers had taken off work to protest, a child in Kentucky had been sexually assaulted. Bevin’s comment drew widespread condemnation from members of both parties. In an unusual move, the State House of Representatives unanimously passed a resolution formally condemning Bevin for his comments. Bevin ultimately apologized for his comments.
Onto the Races: Part II
Why does all of this matter? The 2018 State Legislative session has exposed huge cleavages in the House Republican Caucus. The relationship between Matt Bevin, Robert Stivers, Jeff Hoover, and David Osborne is probably beyond broken. Bevin’s approval rating has collapsed, and there is some suggestion that he may decide to retire. If he does run in 2019, Bevin is almost certain to face a strong challenge from Rocky Adkins to Andy Beshear.
The protests have reinvigorated the state Democratic Party. Women and teachers have gotten off the sidelines to run for political office, many for the first time. Despite a disastrous 2016, Democrats actually did far better in candidate recruitment this time around, running candidates in 92 State House seats and 14 of 16 State Senate races. In other southern Democratic states, Democrats had fought hard during the cycle they lost the state legislature and then essentially given up and stopped fielding candidates. The Kentucky Democratic Party does not appear to have given up just yet.
The KYDP is also using a different legislative strategy than in the past. When Greg Stumbo and Jody Richards controlled the party, candidates for State House seats generally tended to be fairly popular county or city officials. Under Ben Self and Rocky Adkins, the party has recruited everyday people – businessmen, teachers etc. to run for office.
The Kentucky Republican Party did decently in candidate recruitment. 2 out of 3 vulnerable Democrats in the State House will have Republican challengers. In the State House, Republicans have candidates for 29 out of 36 seats, though embarrassingly failed to find candidates for several seats that Trump won by 50+ points.
However, getting candidates to file is only one part of the process. The KYDP is in horrendous financial shape while the KYGOP is for the first time doing reasonably well. Republicans are likely to have the support of Mitch McConnell and wealthy donors while most outside Democrats are likely to spend time investing in winning more competitive state legislatures.
Moreover, Donald Trump remains popular in Kentucky. His policies (tax cuts, reduction in regulations, support for coal) play well across the state, especially in rural areas. There is a strong cultural dislike of coastal elite Democrats. Democrats are hurt by the fact that they are defending 11 open seats, of which 4 could seem likely to flip (1 other incumbent, Wilson Stone, is likely to lose reelection).
So will the Kentucky House races be nationalized or localized? Nationalizing the races favors the Republicans. Localizing the races favors the Democrats.
With that, let us look at the 35 key primaries.
Kentucky State House District 3
- 2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 42%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 42%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 53%, Conway 44%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
- 2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 36%
This district is located in urban Paducah, the largest town in the Jackson Purchase. Paducah is known for its craft art (including quilts) and is also the site of a uranium enrichment plant. Long ago, it served as a distribution point where farmers from rural western Kentucky would come to sell their crops.
Conservative Democrat Gerald Watkins is retiring to run for local office. There is a Republican primary between Joni Hogancamp (who lost to Watkins in 2016) and Randy Bridges (who lost to Watkins in 2014). Bridges did a bit better than Hogancamp in their races against Watkins.
Hogancamp is a businesswoman, who is focusing on healthcare and attracting industry to western Kentucky. Kentucky Right to Life has endorsed Hogancamp. Bridges is a realtor and is focused on tackling the drug epidemic through education and incarceration, promoting a business-friendly tax plan, and promoting a balanced budget.
Both candidates are fairly generic conservatives. Bridges has raised $t0K and spent $24K while Hogancamp has raised $20K and spent $1K. Perhaps a slight tilt toward Bridges.
Whoever wins will face Democrat Martha Emmons in the general election. Emmons is a Paducah businesswoman who owns a bicycle shop. She is likely to follow in Watkins’ footsteps as a strong supporter of unions.
This district contains urban Paducah, so the Democratic floor is higher than other west Kentucky seats. But the suburbs are blood red. Tossup in the general.
Kentucky State House District 4
- 2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 29%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 62%, Beshear 38%
- 2016 President: Trump 77%, Clinton 20%
This district is located in western Kentucky, and includes Livingston, Crittenden, Caldwell, and parts of Christian County. Historically, this district’s economy has consisted of a mix of agriculture and industry. Like other areas in Western Kentucky, tobacco has been a big part of this district’s heritage. Until the middle of the 20th century, Crittenden County was home to an iron mining industry. This region also has a few coal mines. Today, the district is primarily agricultural.
There is a Republican primary between three-term incumbent Lynn Belcher and farmer Fred Stubblefield.
Both candidates have remarkably similar campaign platforms, though with different focuses. Belcher is campaigning on eliminating the state income tax, investigating Kentucky Wired (a Beshear-era program to bring broadband to the rest of the state that is over budget), and reducing state spending. Stubblefield is campaigning on investing in infrastructure and reducing taxes.
Both Belcher and Stubblefield share the same opinions on education (focus is on public education but charter schools are fine), the minimum wage (opposed to an increase), medical marijuana (opposed to legalization), smoking ban (opposed), and Internet voting (opposed).
It is worth noting that Lynn Belcher did not vote on the pension reform bill.
Belcher has raised $12K and spent $1K while Stubblefield has raised $4K and spent $3K. Belcher has been a relatively non-controversial incumbent and should be able to win.
Whoever advances to the general will face Emerge Kentucky graduate and lawyer Abigail C. Barnes. Barnes is running against the Republican pension reform bill as well as Belcher’s support for prevailing wage repeal and right-to-work. This race will be tough for Democrats, though Belcher did underperform Mitch McConnell by 18 points in 2014 (winning 55-45). A Democratic wave could put Barnes on top, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Likely R.
Kentucky State House District 6
- 2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 37%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
- 2016 President: Trump 73%, Clinton 23%
This district includes Benton County, Lyon County, and one precinct in McCracken County. This district is primarily agricultural and has a strong Democratic heritage. Benton is widely known for its Big Singing Day, which is considered the oldest indigenous musical tradition in the United States.
The incumbent Democrat is Will Coursey. Coursey is the last Democrat to represent rural agricultural Western Kentucky in the State House. He will not be seeking reelection, creating a primary on both the Democratic and the Republican side.
The Democratic primary is between Al Cunningham, Linda Edwards, and Drew Williams, all from Benton. Cunningham is a former union representative with strong connections to the AFL-CIO. Edwards is a retail business owner and former elementary teacher. Williams is an environmental activist and campaign volunteer, and is probably the most liberal of all three candidates. All of the Democrats are running against the Republican pension bill and as supporters of unions.
Cunningham has raised $15K and spent $7K while Edwards has raised $1K and spent $1K. Williams has raised $4K and spent $4K. It is anybody’s guess who wins in a low turnout primary.
The Republican primary is between Randall Fox and Chris Freeland. Fox is a business owner and has served on the Bluegrass State Skills Corporation Board. Freeland is the owner of a broadcasting company and is focusing on infrastructure and attracting businesses to western Kentucky. Fox appears to be a more eccentric Republican, running on a balanced budget amendment, support for a Medicaid expansion, and support for finding more revenue to send to the pension system (rather than changing the structure of the pensions themselves). Freeland has raised $14K, and spent $3K while Fox has raised $11K and spent $10K. There will be very few votes cast in the Republican primary, so it is anybody’s guess who wins the primary.
The general election will be competitive. Republicans have captured every other rural west Kentucky seat but the 6th has doggedly held out. Coursey was one of two rural Democratic incumbents with challengers in 2016 to win by double digits. Was it Coursey’s popularity or are the voters here willing to accept conservative Democrats? Can teachers propel the Democrats to victory here? We shall see. Tossup.
Kentucky State House District 14
- 2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%
- 2016 President: Trump 73%, Clinton 22%
This district takes in the outer areas of Owensboro, rural eastern Daviess County and rural Ohio County. Ohio County is home to some coal mining.
Freshman Republican Matt Castlen is already trying to move up to the State Senate, and is leaving this seat vacant. The two Republicans running to replace him are Jordan Lanham, a coal mine operator and Ohio County Schools Superintendent Scott Lewis. Lanham is endorsed by Castlen. Overall, both candidates seem to be fairly conservative.
Lanham has a geographic advantage. More Republican votes will be cast in Daviess County than in conservative Democratic areas of Ohio County. But Lewis probably has higher name recognition in the district.
But in a low turnout primary, either of them could prevail. Lanham has raised $25K and spent $23K while Lewis has raised $12K and spent $9K.
Whoever wins the primary will face community activist and Democrat Elizabeth Belcher in November. This district flipped to Republicans for the first time in 2016 and has probably flipped for good. We will call it Likely R for now, but bordering on Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 17
- 2012 President: Romney 69%, Obama 30%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 59%, Grimes 41%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%
- 2016 President: Trump 68%, Clinton 27%
This district covers Butler County and areas west of Bowling Green in Warren County. This area is agricultural and is considered a center of downballot power for the Kentucky Republican Party. In other words, conservative Democrats do not win here.
Incumbent Republican Jim DeCesare is retiring after being named in the sexual harassment case that caused the Jeff Hoover scandal. The Republican candidates are business owner Joey Franzell, Pharmacy CEO Steve Sheldon, Warren County Republican Chair David Graham, and school administrator Mike Wilson. None of the candidates are running on particularly different platforms.
In terms of fundraising, Sheldon has raised $54K and spent $54K, Wilson has raised $6K and spent $4K, Graham has raised $12K and spent $5K and Franzell has not raised or spent any money.
Sheldon is probably the likeliest candidate to win, though in a low turnout primary, Franzell could theoretically win by virtue of being the only candidate from Butler County.
Whoever advances to the general election will face businessman and Democrat Malcom Cherry, who almost beat DeCesare twelve years ago. Cherry has no chance to win. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 19
- 2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 37%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin58%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%
- 2016 President: Trump 68%, Clinton 28%
This district encompasses Edmonson County and areas east and north of Bowling Green in Warren County.
Michael Lee Meredith is the incumbent Republican. Meredith is running for reelection despite being named in the same sexual harassment case as Jeff Hoover. Meredith will face professor and former Bowling Green City Councilman Brian Kent Strow in the Republican primary, who appears to be running as a standard conservative with libertarian tendencies. Meredith has raised $49K and spent $21K while Strow has raised $6K and spent $4K. I’m going to go advantage Meredith unless the harassment scandal has sunk in deeper than I can tell.
There is also a Democratic primary. The candidates are retired deputy sheriff and conservative Democrat Bill Fishback, veteran Daniel Wayne Johnson, and warehouse worker Jacob Moore. Johnson and Moore are more liberal than Fishback. Fishback has raised $1K and spent $1K, Johnson has raised $0 and Moore has raised $0. It is anybody’s guess who wins the primary.
The Republicans should be favored in the general election. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 20
- 2012 President: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 47%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
- 2016 President: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%
This district is centered on Bowling Green. Bowling Green is known for Western Kentucky University, its Green Assembly plant (that manufactures Chevrolet Cars), and its historic downtown area. The area is known for its high income and low cost of doing business, and also has a thriving industrial and healthcare sector.
The representative for this district is powerful Democrat Jody Richards, who was first elected to the State House in 1976, and then served as Speaker from 1995 to 2009 and then served as Speaker Pro Tempore from 2015-2017. In January 2018, Richards announced he would retire from politics in January 2019.
The retirement of Richards left a big hole in this district. Five Democrats have jumped in to the race: former Western Kentucky Vice President for Alumni Relations Rick DuBose, history professor Patti Minter, Bowling Green City Commissioner Brian Nash, attorney Ashlea Porter, and former Bowling Green Mayor Eldon Renaud.
All of the Democratic candidates are campaigning to increase spending on K-12 education and public education, reverse the Republican pension bill, and create a culture that encourages respect for teachers. Minter wants to close corporate loopholes to get more revenue to spend on education while Nash imagines taxing medical marijuana and making the tax system for 1099 employees more efficient. Both Minter and Nash are both very close with the LGBT community. Local unions back Renaud while Dubose has emphasized his belief that healthcare is a right, not a privilege. Porter is focusing on infrastructure investment and investing in new economic and industrial opportunity.
Dubose has raised $19K and spent $5K. Minter has raised $33K and spent $15K. Nash has raised $3K and spent $3K. Porter has raised $10K and spent $9K and Renaud has raised $13K and spent $11K. Any of the candidates could conceivably win, though I would watch Minter, Dubose, and Renaud.
There is also a Republican primary between business consultant Troy Brooks, businessman Ben Lawson, and JROTC instructor Todd Alcott. Brooks has previously been indicted on theft charges in Tennessee thanks to a Nigerian get-rich-quick scheme. Alcott is the only Republican to support the Bevin pension bill. All three Republicans supported the Republican tax bill.
Alcott has raised $20K and spent $15K. Brooks has raised $24K and spent $23K and Lawson has raised $28K and spent $19K. Republican turnout should be very low on Tuesday. I have no idea who wins, though I am going hazard a guess and say Lawson.
This district is likely to stay Democratic in the general election. The presence of Western Kentucky University makes this district the heart of resistance to Matt Bevin’s pension legislation and his comments about teachers. Hillary Clinton beat Trump here and Democrats do well downballot. However, Democrats will have to spend money to make sure minority voters in Bowling Green (historically low turnout in midterms) actually come out to vote.
Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 25
- 2012 President: Romney 62%, Obama 36%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
- 2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 30%
This district takes in the southern third of Hardin County. The area includes rural agricultural areas, and town of Elizabethtown. Today, Elizabethtown has a substantial commercial and manufacturing sector and is becoming more integrated with Louisville.
There is a Democratic primary for this seat. The candidates are retired educator Tom Williamson and school board member Matt Wyatt. Wyatt is opposed to Bevin’s cuts to public schools, supports Medicaid expansion, and wants to improve workforce development initiatives. Wyatt is highlighting his work on the school board, especially because he presided over a period of improved test scores and increased teacher salaries. Williamson is focusing on Bevin’s war “against public education” and is also against the Republican pension plan.
Williamson has raised $9K and spent $6K while Wyatt has raised $2K and spent $2K. I think Wililamson has a better chance to win.
The winner of the primary will face sophomore Republican Jim DuPlessis. DuPlessis is a standard conservative on both fiscal and social issues and has focused on financial literacy in the State House. DuPlessis won by 50 points over an underwhelming Democrat in 2016. He is likely favored again, but this kind of district could turn into ground zero for the anti-Bevin protests is likely favored in the general election but this could be ground zero for the anti-Bevin, pro-union protests that have been roiling the state. Likely R.
Kentucky State House District 27
- 2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 53%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 50%, Conway 45%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%
- 2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 31%
This district encompasses Meade County and parts of Hardin County. Meade County is known for its recreation opportunities along the Ohio River, and the historic downtown of Brandenburg. The area is connected economically with the Fort Knox area.
The representative here is Democrat Jeff Greer. Greer is chair of the Banking and Insurance Committee and has attracted criticism in the past for writing bills that would help banks over consumers. Greer has been an outspoken proponent of the prevailing wage and an opponent of right-to-work.
There is a Republican primary between Rachelle Frazier and Nancy Tate. Frazier, the Director of Life Transformation Ministries, faced Greer in 2014 and got 43% and faced Greer in 2016 and got 46%. Tate is a UPS employee.
Frazier has raised $3K and spent $1K while Tate has raised $20K and spent $18K. This district has a lot of conservative Democrats, so turnout in the republican primary will be low. Frazier has the name recognition but Tate has the money. Either of the two could win.
Whoever advances to the general will face Greer. The seat is a potential pickup for Republicans, but Greer has managed to hold it down without much stress. It is the kind of place that can easily support fiscally liberal socially conservative Democrats like Greer, especially after the legislative policies pushed by Bevin and House Republicans. Lean D.
Kentucky State House District 30
- 2012 President: Obama 72%, Romney 27%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 72%, McConnell 27%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 70%, Bevin 26%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 76%, Knipper 24%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 76%, Westerfield 24%
- 2016 President: Clinton 70%, Trump 26%
This district is located in urban Louisville and contains the neighborhoods of Watterson Park, West Buechel, and Poplar Hills.
The representative here is Democrat Tom Burch. Burch has served in the State House since 1978, and has focused on legislation having to do with early childhood development, homelessness, and healthcare. Burch is very liberal.
Burch faces a Democratic primary against historian and business manager Warren Greer and James Penny.
Greer wants to focus on improving infrastructure, reducing crime and fighting back against bigotry. He is a strong opponent of Bevin’s pension bill, wants to increase teacher pay, and expand outdoor recreation opportunities. Greer has hit Burch for serving as Chair of the House health and Welfare Committee at a time when the opioid crisis exploded, diabetes exploded, and cancer rates in Kentucky increased. Greer has also pointed out Burch’s connections with pharmaceutical companies and the health insurance industry.
Penny is focused on investing in STEM jobs, fighting the opioid crisis, combating homelessness, increasing the amount of money budgeted for education, and legalizing medical marijuana and gambling.
Burch has raised $73K, while Greer has raised $6K and Penny has raised $5K. In a low-turnout primary, Burch’s name recognition, deep community roots, and popularity carries the way.
In the general, Burch will face Republican Christine O’Connor. Safe D.
Kentucky State House District 32
- 2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 49%, Bevin 48%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 54%, Knipper 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
- 2016 President: Clinton 47%, Trump 47%
This district is located east of Louisville and includes middle class and wealthy areas of the city.
The incumbent is sophomore Republican Phil Moffett. Moffett came to the House as a well-known fiscal conservative, campaigning on cutting spending and eliminating the state income tax. However, Moffett notably opposed the pension reform bill. I’m not exactly sure why, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was from the right. He faces businessman Alan Steiden in the primary, who does not appear to be making much of an effort.
Democrats will be gunning for Moffett in the general election. Moffett’s seat is the closet thing you can get in Kentucky to a wealthy suburban seat that has been turned off by Trump and is considering embracing fiscally moderate socially liberal Democrats (that analogy doesn’t quite work because local conservative Democrats running statewide still do well here, but it is the best I can do).
Tina Bojanowski is the Democratic candidate. She is an Emerge Kentucky graduate, and has the strong support of various labor groups and education groups. She is particularly concerned about investing in education for students with disabilities, and wants to focus on mental healthcare. I can almost guarantee that statewide Democrats like Andy Beshear, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Steve Beshear will help Bojanowski in November.
It will be a close race. Moffett is decently popular, and in nearby (and more Democratic) HD-38, Republican Incumbent Denny Butler lost by just two points in 2016. Tossup.
Moffett has raised $5K and spent $200 while Bojanowski has raised $25K and spent $8K. Steiden has raised no money and spent no money.
Kentucky State House District 33
- 2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 43%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
- 2016 President: Trump 50%, Clinton 44%
This district is located in the northern areas of Louisville, Kentucky, and also includes suburban areas of Oldham County. This area tends to be upper income and is home to a sizable percentage of Eastern European immigrants. The suburban areas of Oldham County have some of the most educated people in Kentucky.
The incumbent is Republican Jason Michael Nemes. Nemes was against the more extreme Bevin pension bill but supported the compromise that came out of the legislature.
The Democratic primary is between 2016 candidate and lawyer Rob Walker and lawyer Ashley Nash.
Walker is campaigning on opposing charter schools, funding pensions for state workers, expanding gaming, legalizing medicinal marijuana, repealing right to work, banning discrimination, imposing term limits, ending gerrymandering, and treating drug addiction as an illness and not a crime.
Nash is campaigning on many similar themes. She wants to stop public education from being attacked, support universal pre-K, repeal right-to-work, support universal healthcare coverage, legalize medical marijuana, support public financing of elections, and stop the recent Republican pension bill.
Walker has raised $26K and spent $16K while Nash has raised $10K and spent $2K. I favor Walker in a low-turnout primary, partly because of high name recognition.
This district will be competitive. It is like HD-32: upper income, full of professionals, and socially moderate voters. Nemes won by 12 points in 2016 and is a good fundraiser, suggesting that he can out perform the top of the ticket. But if Bevin backlash hits here, it will hit strong.
Lean R.
Kentucky State House District 35
- 2012 President: Obama 56%, Romney 42%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 59%, McConnell 38%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 63%, Bevin 33%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 68%, Knipper 32%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 68%, Westerfield 32%
- 2016 President: Clinton 54%, Trump 40%
This district is located in urban Louisville, south of downtown. The district contains working class neighborhoods and the airport.
Incumbent Democrat Jim Wayne is retiring. Wayne is one of the liberal stalwarts in the state legislature. The candidates to replace him include union organizer Richard Becker, campaign consultant Jack Walker, and Lisa Wilner, the Jefferson County Public Schools board vice chair. All three candidates are running as progressives.
Wilner was credited with making Jefferson County Public Schools a safe haven for immigrants, advocating for restorative justice in schools, and lobbying for transgender inclusion.
Walker is focused on his experience as a Frankfort insider. He supports equal pay for equal work, as well as the “Living Room Project,” which can identify at-risk individuals and prevent the further spread of the opioid crisis. He also highlights the need to legalize cannabis, endorse labor unions, and support LGBTQ rights.
Finally, Becker is running on a campaign of single-payer healthcare, a $15 minimum wage, green jobs, an end to private prisons, and the legalization of cannabis.
The race has been defined by which elected officials are endorsing which candidates. Rep. Mary Lou Marzian, perhaps the most progressive member of the House caucus, is backing Wilner. Rep. Attica Scott, Al Gentry, and Jeff Donohue are backing Becker. Meanwhile, Walker has received endorsements from the Democratic State Senators from Louisville.
Becker has raised $53K and spent $44K. Wilner has spent $57K and spent $28K and Walker has raised $19K and spent $9K. Small advantage to Wilner.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will be favored over Republican Donna Lawlor in the general election.
Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 36
- 2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 34%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 57%, Beshear 43%
- 2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 36%
This district is located in the dark red suburbs of east Louisville – Eastwood, Fisherville, and Lake Forest. The district also includes some areas in wealthy Oldham County, near Pewee Valley.
The incumbent Republican is Jerry T. Miller. Miller has been a solid fiscal conservative issues, supporting right-to-work, pension reform, and governmental accountability.
There is a Democratic primary between engineer Jeff Grammer, John Thomas Miller Jr., and businessman and former state official Maurice Sweeney.
Grammer is focusing on better funding for infrastructure and green spaces, new revenue streams for pensions, pay equity for women, and initiatives to support clean air. The AFL-CIO has endorsed Grammer.
Sweeney is focusing on investing in better infrastructure, finding new sources of revenue to fund teacher salaries, ending gerrymandering, letting voters decide on marijuana legalization, making unions more inclusive, and enacting reasonable gun restrictions.
Grammer has raised $3K and spent $2K, Miller has raised and spent nothing, and Sweeney has raised $4K and spent $2K.
As voters move out of urban Lexington and into suburban and exurban areas, this district will continue to grow. In another decade or so, it could become more Democratic like the rest of Louisville, but for now, Miller should be fine. Likely R.
Kentucky State House District 40
- 2012 President: Obama 68%, Romney 31%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 68%, McConnell 29%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 69%, Bevin 28%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 74%, Knipper 26%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 75%, Westerfield 25%
- 2016 President: Clinton 64%, Trump 31%
This district is located in the working class areas of west and southwest Louisville. The representative is liberal Democrat Dennis Horlander. Horlander has focused on election reform, consumer protection, and child support in the state legislature.
Horlander faces a primary from businessman Logan Gatti, union president Kelly Gibson, and Nina Kulkarni, an immigration and employment law attorney.
Horlander has had several back surgeries, so has not been able to campaign at all over the past few weeks. That has allowed his opponents, particularly Gibson, to argue that the district needs someone new.
Kulkarni is focusing on her role as a lawyer for immigrants and disadvantaged individuals while Gatti is emphasizing how the skills that he has learned as a businessman can be applicable to politics. Gatti supports organized labor, wants to expand Medicaid, and wants to expand renewable energy projects. Kulkarni also supports comprehensive healthcare and a living wage.
Horlander has raised $24K and spent $25K. Kulkarni has raised $40K and spent $11K. Gibson has raised $0 and spent $0 and Gatti has raised $14K and spent $12K. Because Horlander has been off the campaign trail, this might be a race where the incumbent goes down on election night. However, in a low-turnout primary, Horlander’s name recognition could carry the day.
Republican Josh Neubert awaits in the general election. He stands no chance in this Safe D seat.
Kentucky State House District 42
- 2012 President: Obama 86%, Romney 13%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 87%, McConnell 11%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 85%, Bevin 11%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 90%, Knipper 10%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 90%, Westerfield 10%
- 2016 President: Clinton 84%, Trump 11%
This district stretches from West End through areas directly east of downtown. It is the most Democratic district in the state.
Reginald Meeks, one of the most liberal members of the State House, is seeking reelection. He faces unknown Democrat Matt Osborne in the primary. Meeks should easily dispatch Osborne, and then dispatch businesswoman, community activist and Republican Judy Stallard in the general.. Safe D.
Kentucky State House District 43
- 2012 President: Obama 76%, Romney 23%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 26%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 72%, Bevin 25%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 77%, Knipper 23%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 78%, Westerfield 22%
- 2016 President: Clinton 74%, Trump 22%
This district begins in Louisville’s African American West End and goes east along the Ohio River to take in the areas of downtown, areas around KFC Stadium, and some white (conservative) areas east of downtown.
Incumbent Democrat Darryl Owens, a beloved member of the black community in Kentucky, is retiring after 7 terms. Owens was the first black man elected to county office in Jefferson County all the way back in 1983. Owens spent most of his career focused on voting rights, criminal justice reform, and public education.
The retirement of Owens has left local politicians excited about filling a rare open State House seat. There are no less than seven Democrats in contention to replace Owens: real estate agent Phil Baker, policy analyst Charles Booker, attorney Jackson Andrews, martial arts instructor Dre Dawson, attorney Mark Mitchell, civil rights activist Kathleen Parks, and attorney Pamela Stevenson. It isn’t worth discussing the policy differences between the seven – they all are running as liberal Democrats.
There is some concern among black politicians that the black vote in West Louisville could be split among six black candidates allowing Andrews, the one white Democrat to win. This race is too complicated to even guess who might win.
Republicans have a primary between Everett Corley and Denise Raine. Corley is known for opposing the removal of confederate statues.
This district is one of the safest in the state for Democrats, and whoever wins the Democratic primary should be favored in November. Safe D.
Kentucky State House District 50
- 2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 48%, Conway 48%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 56%, Knipper 44%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 54%, Westerfield 46%
- 2016 President: Trump 65%, Clinton 31%
This district is located in Nelson County, Kentucky. The county seat is Bardstown, which is known for its Catholic heritage, its historic district, its distilleries, and its agricultural industry.
Republican Chad McCoy is in his first term. McCoy has had an unremarkable, but conservative first term, with the exception of when he broke from the rest of his caucus and opposed a bill to make it harder to sue doctors and hospitals (because It would create another government agency). McCoy also spearheaded the charge to allow licensed retailers to sell vintage distilled spirits.
There is a Democratic primary to take on McCoy. The candidates are 2016 candidate James DeWeese and project engineer Kory Miller. Miller is running on a progressive platform, which seems to not be a good idea in this district (though there are a lot of economically liberal, pro-union, socially conservative Democrats here). The two disagree on cigarette taxes (DeWeese against, Miller for), gambling (DeWeese for, Miller against), abortion (DeWeese against, Miller for), and marijuana (Miller supports legalizing recreational marijuana; DeWeese says he wants to study it more).
Miller has not raised a single dime while DeWeese has raised $24K and spent $1K, outraising even McCoy. Advantage DeWeese.
General election: Despite being a district where Democrats can do very well (see 2015 SoS and AG), McCoy easily beat DeWeese by 28 points in 2016. Can anti-Bevin backlash and teachers protests bring voters back to the Democrartic Party? We will have to see.
For now, Lean R.
Kentucky State House District 60
- 2012 President: Romney 71%, Obama 27%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 29%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 68%, Grimes 32%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 63%, Beshear 37%
- 2016 President: Trump 69%, Clinton 25%
We now head north to the Ohio River counties, one of the most Republican areas in the state of Kentucky. This district is located in Boone County, the home of several large aerospace businesses and DHL Express, a large German logistics company.
The representative here is Republican Sal Santoro, who is very conservative.
There is a Democratic primary between retired special education teacher Roger Rankin and sales manager Jesse Parks. Rankin is campaigning against charter schools and right-to-work while Parks is campaigning on keeping promises to public employees, and other liberal causes.
Parks has raised $4K while Rankin has raised nothing. Advantage Parks.
Either one is pretty much guaranteed to lose to Santoro come November.
Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 61
- 2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 30%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 59%, Beshear 41%
- 2016 President: Trump 74%, Clinton 22%
This district is in part of the Bluegrass region in rural northern Kentucky. The district is mainly agricultural, and includes Ark Encounter, a Christian fundamentalist theme park.
The incumbent Republican is Brian Linder. Linder was one of the Republicans named in the sexual harassment case involving former Speaker Hoover last year. He chose to retire.
There is a Republican primary between Dr. Michael Fletcher and political organizer Savannah Maddox. Maddox is running as a Thomas Massie style candidate and has been endorsed by the NRA. Maddox emphasizes being pro-life, pro-2nd amendment and supporter of religious liberty on her campaign page. She appears to be behind the Bevin pension bill and also wants to reduce government spending. Fletcher is emphasizing his local roots as a small business owner and a teacher and has been endorsed by Kentucky Right to Life.
Fletcher has raised $23K and spent nearly all of it. Maddox has raised $15K and spent $8K. Fletcher comes from Kenton County, which has more registered Republicans than Grant County (still has a lot of conservative Democrats). But Kenton County often has horrible turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if either candidate wins.
There is a Democratic primary between high school guidance counselor Susan Back and former Grant County Judge-Executive Darrell Link. Link is union-backed and is highlighting his track record of balancing budgets at the county level without tax increases. He was criticized in 2014 for exhibiting aggressive behavior at a fiscal court meeting. Back is emphasizing the need to find new revenue sources to fund public education.
Link has high enough name recognition that I would be very surprised if he does not win. He has raised $19K and spent $14K while Back has only raised $3K and spent $2K. Link also comes from Grant County, where there are more conservative Democrats. Back comes from Kenton, where there are more registered Republicans. Advantage Link.
Ten years ago, this election would have been competitive. It would have been a question whether conservative Democrats in rural Grant County would outvote Republicans in rural Kenton County (which every year is becoming more exurban as the Cincinnati suburbs creep south). Nowadays, Republicans tend to dominate in this region. Link may have some residual name recognition and popularity in Grant County, but he was only able to win by 2 points when he was last on the ballot for Judge Executive in 2010. And a Democrat needs to win by a lot more to offset the huge margins Republicans will get out of Kenton.
Likely R, bordering on Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 62
- 2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 40%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 43%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
- 2016 President: Trump 64%, Clinton 31%
This district is located northwest of Lexington, stretching from some exurban areas in Fayette County through the town of Georgetown and rural horse farms in the “Bluegrass region.” This area has seen incredible economic (and population) growth over the past few decades, largely thanks to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Factory in Georgetown.
Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats.
Republican Phil Pratt is the representative for this district. Pratt is a well known landscaper in the area and has assembled a very conservative record throughout his first term in the State House. As a small businessman, Pratt is particularly interested in reducing regulations and government bureaucracy.
Two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on Pratt in the general election. They are Jennifer Urie and Adam Sovkoplas. Urie is a social studies teacher while there is very little information available on Sovkoplas. Urie should take her native Owen County while Sovkoplas will take the few precincts located in Lexington. The real question is who will win Scott County. For now, I give a slight advantage to Urie, who has raised $8K compared to Sovkoplas who has raised $4K.
The general election will be tough for Democrats. Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles held this seat through 2015. Democrat Chuck Tackett briefly held this seat in 2016, but Tackett won with extremely low turnout in a March special election. This area is very focused on economic issues, and so I guess it is a possible candidate for Bevin backlash.
But I’d still bet my money on Pratt. Likely R.
Kentucky House District 69
- 2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 58%, Grimes 42%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
- 2016 President: Trump 59%, Clinton 34%
This district is located in parts of Boone and Kenton County in northern Kentucky. This area has seen a rapid explosion in population over the last decade and consists of automobile manufacturing, retail, and suburban homes.
The representative is Republican Adam Koenig. Koenig has compiled a very conservative voting record in the House, and received criticism last year when he introduced legislation to strip first responders of worker compensation benefits. Koenig has also been a supporter of legalizing casinos to provide revenue for Kentucky’s pension system.
There is a Democratic primary for the right to take on Koenig. The choices are teacher and track coach Ryan Neaves and former Kenton County Democratic Chairman Col Owens. Neaves is emphasizing his newness to politics while Owens is focused on repealing the charter school law, maintaining the current pension plan, continuing the expansion of Medicaid, and expanding apprenticeship programs. Owens has raised $27K and spent $14K while Neaves has raised and spent no money.
The winner of the Democratic primary will have a difficult time defeating Koenig in November. This is a Republican district and substantial number of GOP voters would need to stay home for the Democrat to win. Safe R.
Kentucky House District 71
- 2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 28%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%
- 2016 President: Trump 77%, Clinton 19%
This district is located where the Bluegrass region, the Mississippi Plateau and the Cumberland Plateau come together. It encompasses Garrard County, Rockcastle County, and the parts of Madison County west of Richmond. The region is home to outdoor recreational opportunities and the Kentucky Music Hall of Fame.
The incumbent Republican is House Majority Leader Jonathan Shell. Shell obtained his position by running the 2016 campaign to capture the House majority. He has amassed a very conservative voting record and is widely regarded by Mitch McConnell and state Republican leaders.
Shell does face a primary from Rockcastle County High School math teacher R. Travis Brenda. Brenda is angry about Shell’s vote for the pension bill and Shell’s vote for tax reform, specifically the new 6% sales tax applied to various services. Shell has raised $131K, allowing him to spend money on tv ads. Brenda does not have money for tv ads, but has amassed a following on social media.
Shell has high name recognition and works his district well so I expect him to win on Tuesday. He will face real estate agent and Madison County Schools Board member Mary Renfro in the general election. Renfro is exceedingly unlikely to win in this Safe R seat.
Kentucky House District 73
- 2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 58%, Grimes 38%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
- 2016 President: Trump 67%, Clinton 28%
This district takes in Clark County and the northern areas of Madison County (in the Bluegrass region) This district is primarily agricultural, growing hemp and even some tobacco, though areas of Winchester, the county seat, have an industrial base.
Incumbent Republican Donna Mayfield is retiring, leaving business owner Les Yates as the only Republican on the ticket.
There is a Democratic primary between artist and environmental activist Pat Banks and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Rory Houlihan. Banks wants to invest in teachers, focus on the arts community in the region, and support family farmers working ot achieve farm to table. She also wants to put more emphasis on the first steps of seeking treatment for the opioid crisis. Houlihan wants to repeal right-to-work, reinstate prevailing wage, and implement campaign finance reform.
Banks has raised $2K and spent $1K while Houlihan has raised nothing and spent nothing. Advantage Banks.
This is a tough seat for Democrats, and would likely be competitive if everything goes wrong for Republicans. Likely R.
Kentucky House District 74
- 2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 42%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%
- 2016 President: Trump 70%, Clinton 27%
This district is located east of Lexington in Montgomery, Menifee, and Powell County. The area has a lot of conservative Democrats, who have historically supported unions.
The incumbent is sophomore Republican David Hale. Hale has been a moderate Republican, and has been especially pro-union. He opposed prevailing wage repeal, opposed telephone deregulation, opposed the recent tax bill, opposed charter school legislation promoted by the Republican leadership, but did back the recent pension bill that has sparked so much controversy.
There is a Democratic primary to oppose Hale. 2016 candidate and lawyer James Davis will face off against businessman Brian Derickson. Davis comes from a more populated county and likely has higher name recognition than Derickson. Both candidates are running on fiscally liberal platforms, which is common for this area of rural Kentucky that is full of old school Democrats. The two have raised about $4K each. Advantage Davis.
The general will be tough. Hale has proven to be very popular in his home county of Menifee, meaning Davis or Derickson will need to run up the margin in the rest of the district. Hale has also been able to set himself apart from other more conservative Republicans in the state legislature and focus on constituent services. However, voters could be willing to come to Democrats if Davis or Derickson can make the argument that Republicans abandoned the working class with pension legislation, right-to-work and a repeal of the prevailing wage. In other words, the Bevin backlash could hit if the conditions are right.
Tilt R.
Kentucky House District 81
- 2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 47%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%
- 2016 President: Trump 54%, Clinton 39%
This district is located east of Lexington, taking in the city of Richmond and surrounding area. Richmond has seen growth in recent years, thanks to a commercial and residential boom in the eastern Bluegrass.
The incumbent Republican is C. Wesley Morgan. Morgan has a horrible relationship with state party leaders, after being one of the first members to call on Speaker Hoover to resign. Morgan has also attracted criticism for introducing liquor bills that may benefit his own business. Morgan is running for reelection on the theme of trying to clean up corruption and defeat the “good old boys” that run Frankfort. Morgan voted for almost all conservative legislation in 2017, including repeal of prevailing wage, right-to-work, pro-life bills, and charter schools. He did vote against tax reform and the pension bill this year.
Morgan faces a Republican primary challenge from audiologist Deanna Frazier. Frazier is campaigning on the idea that Morgan’s opposition to GOP leadership in Frankfort has impeded his ability to do good things for the district (Republican leadership routinely refuses to allow votes on Morgan’s bills).
Morgan has raised $19K and Frazier has raised $18K. This primary could go either way and state Republicans will not be unhappy if Morgan loses.
Richmond City Commissioner and Democrat Morgan Eaves awaits in the general election. Eaves has already raised $48K and is an Emerge Kentucky graduate. She wants to find new revenue streams to fund pensions. She wants to invest in Berea College and Eastern Kentucky University in Madison County, and has highlighted her local work advocating for new community buildings.
Morgan’s win in 2016 was a surprise. Eaves is one of the strongest Democratic challengers, and if she continues to beat the Republican in money raised, she stands a good chance at winning. The educational institutions in the district also makes this area a prime area for backlash against Republican bills on pensions, taxes, and right-to-work. If Democrats can’t win here, they won’t be gaining seats on election night.
Tossup.
Kentucky House District 82
- 2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 20%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 71%, Grimes 26%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 26%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 70%, Beshear 30%
- 2016 President: Trump 82%, Clinton 15%
This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest.
The incumbent is Republican Regina Bunch Huff. Huff has amassed a very conservative voting record in the House, but did vote against the pension bill (perhaps because she is a teacher). She did vote for the charter schools legislation, which is what caused teacher Matthew Anderson to announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Besides from education, the opioid crisis has been a big issue in this district. Huff has highlighted her support for wrap-around services for substance abuse programs
Huff has raised $12K while Anderson has raised $11K. Advantage to Huff in a low-turnout primary, but anything is possible.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will easily defeat Democrat Stefanie Kingsley in November.
Safe R.
Kentucky House District 86
- 2012 President: Romney 78%, Obama 21%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 28%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 27%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 63%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 68%, Beshear 32%
- 2016 President: Trump 82%, Clinton 15%
This district is located in Knox County and part of Laurel County in east central Kentucky. The area is known for its coal mining and outdoor recreation.
The Republican is incumbent Jim Stewart, who has served since 1997. Stewart came under scrutiny a few months ago for sexual harassment (something he denied) in 2015. Stewart voted against the controversial pension bill. He faces Don Rose in the primary. Stewart has raised $6K and spent $3K while Rose has raised nothing and spent nothing.
This is a Safe R seat. Stewart should easily beat Debra Payne in November.
Kentucky State House District 88
- 2012 President: Romney 60%, Obama 38%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 46%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
- 2016 President: Trump 51%, Clinton 42%
This district is located east of Lexington, and includes some suburbs, exurbs, and some areas that are still primarily rural.
Republican Robert Benvenuti is retiring. Three Republicans are running to capture the nomination, including former State Representative Bill Farmer, Lexington attorney Jennifer McVay Martin and Lexington businesswoman Ashley Bruggerman.
Farmer is highlighting his extensive background in developing bipartisan relationships. Farmer is also concerned about Kentucky’s outdated tax system.
Martin is highlighting the need for transparent government. She supports inter-state health insurance, the promotion of nonprofit healthcare solutions, the 2nd amendment, cutting spending through eliminating waste, enhancing roads and bridges, and promoting the film industry.
Bruggerman is highlighting her record as a businesswoman. She is pro-life, focused on reducing government spending, and supportive of targeted prosecutions for pill mills, efforts to destigmatize drug abuse, and attempts to beat back the secret club of the Kentucky legislature.
Farmer has raised $3K and spent $195. Martin has raised $36K and spent $23K. Bruggerman has raised $26K and spent $4K. In a three-way race, anybody could win. It is notable that Farmer, who may have high name recognition, has not run a strong campaign.
There is also a Democratic primary for this seat. The candidates are Lexington Fairness Chair and small business owner Josh Mers, businesswoman Cherlynn Stevenson, and community activist and professor Gail Swanson.
Mers is a progressive Democrat who entered the race because of assaults on working families and public education. Stevenson has focused on her work with community service while Swanson is concerned about anti-public school legislation coming from the legislature. All three Democrats are running against the tax bill, the pension bill, for expanded Medicaid and renewable energy alternatives. Mers has the advantage as he has raised $34K and is extremely well connected. Stevenson has raised $24K and Swanson has raised $3K.
The general election will be competitive. This area moved away from Republicans in 2016 as socially moderate Republicans were repulsed by Trump. A lot of teachers in this district might be prone to Bevin backlash. If Democrats want to unseat Andy Barr (especially if Jim Gray in the ballot), they will need to win this State House seat. Expect a lot of resources to be put into this race. Tossup, but Democrats have to like their chances.
Kentucky State House District 89
- 2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 70%, Grimes 27%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 71%, Conway 25%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 69%, Beshear 31%
- 2016 President: Trump 79%, Clinton 17%
This district covers the lower third of Madison County, all of Jackson County, and parts of Laurel County in east-central Kentucky. The district is primarily rural and is home to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest.
Incumbent Robert Goforth won a special election in February. He faces Keith Hays, a principal in a Jackson County High School. Goforth has focused a lot of his attention on the drug epidemic, which has devastated his district. He wants to improve infrastructure, find corporations willing to come to the mountains and support public education. Goforth voted against the Republican pension bill. Hays wants to increase treatment facilities and invest in infrastructure.
Goforth has raised $100K while Hays has raised $11K. How entrenched in Goforth? He will do well in Laurel County but Hays should do well in Jackson County. The winner came down to Madison or who is doing better in their home county.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will face Democrat Kelly Smith in November and will easily win. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 90
- 2012 President: Romney 84%, Obama 14%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 76%, Grimes 21%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 74%, Conway 24%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 70%, Grimes 30%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 74%, Beshear 26%
- 2016 President: Trump 86%, Clinton 12%
This district is located in Leslie, Clay, and part of Laurel County in southeast Kentucky. Like every other district in this region, the main economic drivers are coal and outdoor recreation. This district is incredibly poor and is one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky (even downballot).
The incumbent is Republican Tim Couch. Couch has compiled a very conservative voting record, but he notably voted against the pension reform bill.
Couch is being primaried by Derek Lewis, a small-business owner and entrepreneur. Lewis is a supporter of reduced government spending, fighting against EPA restrictions, diversifying the local economy, promoting tourism, and fiber-optic internet, and expanding drug and alcohol recovery programs and options. Lewis appears to be campaigning hard on the ground.
Lewis has raised $41K and spent $33K while Couch has raised $28K and spent $15K. Lewis should do well in native Laurel County, while Couch will do well in Leslie County. The winner may be decided in Clay County. Advantage to the incumbent Couch, but he could easily lose.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will win the general election. No Democrat filed here.
Kentucky State House District 91
- 2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%
- 2016 President: Trump 76%, Clinton 21%
This district is located in the heart of coal country. It begins in coal-dominated, conservative Democrat Breathitt County and moves west to pick up historically Republican areas of impoverished central Kentucky: Lee, Owsley, and Estill. Like most Appalachian districts, this area is known for its outdoor recreation, its drug epidemic and its political corruption.
The incumbent Republican is Toby Herald. Herald represented this district from 2013-2015, and then reclaimed his seat in 2017. He is pro-life and pro-second amendment, and has demonstrated a very conservative voting record in the legislature. Herald recently supported a measure to combine counties and school districts to reduce government spending.
Herald faces a primary challenger from Robert Goe. Goe does not seem to be running a strong campaign and has said he will not be a “yes man” to leadership.
Strong advantage to Herald.
The Democratic primary is between former state Representative Cluster Howard (2015-2017) and Bruce Shouse. Howard is campaigning to repeal right-to-work and charter schools and is against the tax bill and pension bill from earlier this year. His views should play well in this union-heavy district. Howard has also focused on local issues, including the dumping of illegal waste in landfills in Estill County. Howard has raised $16K. Shouse does not appear to be running a campaign.
The general election will be tough. Breathitt County continues to be home to fiscally liberal, conservative Democrats. But the other counties do not have the union or Democratic heritage, meaning they are Republican downballot.
To win, Howard will need everything to go right: he will need a monster margin out of Breathitt, and he will need to cut his losses elswhere in the district. Herald is a notoriously poor incumbent, and so Howard might be able to do just that (especially if he can attack Herald’s support for the pension slide). But on the flip side, Trump is popular here, and voters might be done with the Republican Party.
Lean R.
Kentucky State House District 96
- 2012 President: Romney 64%, Obama 34%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 41%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 41%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%
- 2016 President: Trump 76%, Clinton 20%
This district is located in Carter and Lawrence County. Coal mining used to be a huge industry here, but Carter is far enough north that it is not as prominent as in other districts.
The representative here is Republican Jill York, the only Republican from rural eastern Kentucky. Democrats tried to redistrict out York in 2013, but she lucked out and got a weak challenger in 2014. York is fiscally liberal, and has been a big supporter of minimum wage increases and an opponent of right-to-work legislation (which hurts union voters in this district). Several major unions have previously endorsed York, including the AFL-CIO. Since the Republicans took control of the majority, York has opposed the pension bill, the tax bill, prevailing wage repeal, pro-smoking legislation, charter schools, and other key legislation.
York faces a primary from school principal Charles Clark, who is also running as a liberal Republican.
York has raised $16K while Clark has not raised or spent any money. Strong Advantage to York.
York is very well entrenched in this seat. She faces political activist Kathy Hinkle in the general election. Hinkle’s husband is well-connected in the Lawrence County Democratic Party. But will that help? Can Hinkle get conservative Democrats to return to the fold? I am doubtful, especially since York is very independent and fiscally liberal (like many of these voters). But if people here decide they are done with Republicans as a whole, they could design to support Hinkle. Lean R.
Kentucky State House District 97
- 2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%
- 2016 President: Trump 79%, Clinton 18%
This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history.
One-term incumbent William Scott Wells, a Republican, is retiring. The Republican primary is between Bobby McCool and Russell Halsey. McCool is a teacher and administrator who was the Republican nominee for this seat in 2014 and lost 63-37 and the nominee in 2012 and lost 59-41. Halsey is a teacher and administrator and is a strong supporter of public schools. He also wants to prepare rural communities for new jobs, reform the tax code, invest in telecom, water, and other infrastructure and increase funding for the state police.
Halsey has raised $8K and McCool has raised $4K. McCool is from vote rich Johnson County, and may have residual name recognition from past runs. Halsey appears to be running a serious campaign but is from Wolfe County, which is still Democratic downballot. Slight advantage to McCool.
There is also a Democratic primary for this seat between Isaac Allen and Craig Lindon. Allen runs a general contracting business in the construction industry. He is campaigning for term limits, the full funding of public education, and an increase in competition in the rural health insurance market. He is against the Republican pension bill.
Lindon is a retired State employee. He is focused on investing high speed internet and cell phone service, which can help expand the economy in eastern Kentucky.
Allen has raised $8K while Lindon has raised $13K. Lindon should do well in his native Wolfe County while Allen should do well in his native Morgan County. Who gets the bigger margin? Who can get the small amount of Democrats in Johnson County? That will decide who wins.
The general election could be competitive. Democrat Hubert Collins held this seat for thirty years until losing in the 2016 wave. This district is very pro-union and was likely upset by some of the legislation pushed by Matt Bevin (pensions, taxes, charter school legislation etc.) However, voters here continue to be repulsed by the national Democratic Party (this is coal country after all) and like Trump. Likely R. In the outside chance that Democrats can reclaim the majority, look for a victory here.
Kentucky State House District 100
- 2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 51%, Conway 45%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 55%, Knipper 45%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 55%, Westerfield 45%
- 2016 President: Trump 66%, Clinton 30%
This district is located in Ashland, Kentucky, one of the largest areas in northeast Kentucky. Historically, Ashland has had a thriving manufacturing center – the 20th century Ashland played host to oil, steel, chemical, and dyes. Today, AK Steel remains a big employer as does King Daughters Medical Center. Healthcare, in particular, is a growing industry in northeast Kentucky.
Democratic incumbent Kevin Sinnette is retiring to run for a Court of Appeals position. There is a Democratic primary to replace him. The candidates are Terri Branham Clark, a businesswoman and fundraiser, and Ann Brown Perkins, a businesswoman.
Clark is emphasizing her opposition to the Republican pension plan and the need to invest in easy river and rail access to attract more businesses to Ashland. Perkins is emphasizing her ties to community leaders, her support for public education and opposition to the Republican pension bill, the need to invest in infrastructure, the need to provide long-term facilities to deal with opioid addiction, and the need to subsidize fresh, local food.
Clark has raised $18K and spent $15K while Perkins has raised $20K and spent $10K. Either candidate could win.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Ashland Police Sgt. Brian Clark in the general election.
Sinnette won by less than 200 votes in 2016, suggesting that this area (which had previously avoided the realignment seen in coal country) was beginning to realign to Republicans. However, there is still a deep base of union and public education support in this district, and voters here might be upset with the legislation Matt Bevin has pursued over the last two years. Ultimately, whoever works hardest in the community is likely to win.
Tossup.
